Bitcoin Modestly Higher But Stays Below Key $120,000 Level — Market Talk

0736 GMT - Bitcoin edges higher but stays below the key $120,000 level in the absence of fresh catalysts to generate more meaningful gains. The cryptocurrency has consolidated from record highs reached earlier this month driven by hopes that landmark U.S. crypto legislation would encourage wider adoption of digital assets. "Bitcoin continues to oscillate within a relatively tight range with $120,000 acting as resistance and support coming in around $117,500," Trade Nation analyst David Morrison says in a note. Bitcoin rises 1.5% to $118,860. It reached an all-time high of $123,153 on July 15, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall after Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision and as investors turn their focus towards next week's Bank of England rate decision. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and left prospects of a rate cut in September still looking uncertain. Investors meanwhile price an 82% probability of the BOE cutting interest rates to 4.0% on August 7, LSEG data show. "We look for an 8-1 vote in favor [of a rate cut] with one dissenting vote in favor of a hold," RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. The 10-year gilt yields fall 3 basis points to last trade at 4.567%, a 3-week low, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - USD/SGD appears to have bottomed on weekly and daily charts, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research in a research report. The currency pair's rebound has quickened this week, the senior technical strategist says. It broke clearly above 55-day exponential moving average and tested the top of daily Ichimoku cloud on Wednesday, the strategist notes. More importantly, the weekly moving average convergence divergence indicator is set to cross into positive territory for first time this year. USD/SGD's current price action may be in the initial phase of a recovery that could extend toward mid-May high of 1.3085, the strategist adds. USD/SGD is 0.2% lower at 1.2978. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0728 GMT - China's economic growth could slow to around 4% on year in 2H, say economists at Barclays' research team. They cite a worsening property sector, some payback in exports after the front-loading in 1H, and weaker U.S. consumer spending in 3Q. The deterioration in July's official manufacturing PMI and moderation in the non-manufacturing PMI suggest that growth momentum likely weakened as front-loading from exports and fiscal stimulus is likely fading, they say in a note. Details of the manufacturing PMI data suggests that industrial profits deteriorated as firms were unable to pass on higher input costs to consumers, given subdued demand. Domestic consumption could moderate but remain resilient, supported in part by the remaining CNY136 billion trade-in subsidy scheduled for distribution in July and October, they add. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0726 GMT - Gold futures trade sideways as markets digest the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. Futures are broadly flat on $3,351.40 a troy ounce. The precious metal slid in the previous session after the Fed cited inflation risks linked to tariff uncertainties as the reason to keep rates unchanged, Sucden Financial analysts say in a note. Higher rates for longer typically damp the appeal of noninterest bearing bullion. At the same time, the dollar has significantly strengthened over the past week, adding further pressure to gold, Sucden says. A stronger dollar makes it more expensive for international purchasers to buy dollar-denominated bullion, and directly competes with its safe-haven characteristics. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0721 GMT - The euro is at risk of extending its recent falls following the U.S.-EU trade deal and after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded cautious about interest-rate cuts Wednesday, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The euro's recent downward correction is driven by grim growth prospects for the eurozone after the U.S.-EU deal and the market scaling back U.S. rate-cut bets following the Fed's meeting Wednesday, he says. Risks "remain on the downside" for the euro even though positioning looks considerably less stretched after speculators closed earlier bets against the dollar. The euro could fall to $1.1300, he says. The euro rises 0.5% to $1.1456 after hitting a seven-week low of $1.1399 Wednesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0712 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's decision to increase buybacks of long-dated Treasurys while leaving auction sizes stable could provide support to the long end of the Treasury curve, say TD Securities' strategists. The U.S. Treasury left coupon auction sizes steady for the sixth consecutive quarter at Wednesday's quarterly refunding, and intends to keep sizes constant for "at least the next several quarters." TD Securities expects nominal auction sizes to stay unchanged until late 2026. The Treasury increased the maximum amount of buybacks at the long end through more frequent operations, a move that was also expected by analysts. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - The Canadian dollar briefly falls after President Trump signalled a trade deal with Canada was far from guaranteed. In a social media post Thursday, Trump said Canada's plans to recognise a Palestinian state would make it "very hard" to agree a trade deal. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would formally recognise the state of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly in September. The U.S. dollar briefly reached an intraday high of 1.3843 Canadian dollars following Trump's remarks. It last trades down 0.1% at 1.3818 Canadian dollars. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0653 GMT - China's July manufacturing PMI fell due to weather events and some early impact of the government's push to drive up prices and curb excess capacity, say economists at Citi Research. Production softened partly on seasonality and weather events disrupting supply in some regions, say Xiangrong Yu and Yuanliu Hu in a research note. The midyear Politburo session appeared to show a limited sense of urgency to roll out big stimulus after a strong 1H. Citi expects implementation of incremental measures, from lowering finance costs to urban renewal programs, to be stepped up going forward. Against this backdrop, the bank says supply-side reforms, if implemented effectively, will be key to easing China's deflationary pressures. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0650 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is expected to hold its policy rate in August and resume its easing cycle later this year, UOB economist Lee Sue Ann writes in a note. Thailand's consumer prices have been declining in recent months, and the central bank could further ease rates, given a muted growth outlook and the current inflation trajectory. UOB expects the BOT to cut rates by 25 bps in October, December and 1Q 2026. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0639 GMT - The dollar eases after hitting a two-month high Wednesday as the attention switches to U.S. tariffs ahead of Friday's deadline for trade negotiations. Trump said Wednesday he wouldn't offer another extension for the pause in reciprocal tariffs. He threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil and a 50% tariff on certain copper products. Trump on Thursday also said Canada's plans to recognise a Palestinian state would make it hard to make a trade deal with the country. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.606. It reached a high of 99.983 Wednesday following stronger-than-expected U.S. private payrolls and economic growth data and after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0615 GMT - Business sentiment in Singapore's manufacturing sector remains largely cautious amid tariff uncertainties and trade tensions, the Singapore Economic Development Board says. Its survey shows that the majority of firms expect a similar operating environment in 2H. Some companies also expect it to be challenging to obtain export orders in 3Q due to factors including price competition from overseas competitors. The chemicals sector is the most pessimistic, with some companies anticipating weak business conditions in the six months ahead. However, most in the manufacturing sector expect 3Q employment level to remain broadly unchanged from 2Q, EDB says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)