Chainalysis warns crypto criminals could net $4 billion in 2025 as wallet theft in Europe, Middle East skyrocket

Crypto thieves plundered an unprecedented $2.17 billion in digital assets during the first half of 2025, surpassing last year's full‑year tally and putting the industry on pace for as much as $4 billion in losses by December, blockchain forensic firm Chainalysis said in a mid‑year report released Thursday.

The surge owes much to the $1.5 billion hack of the Bybit exchange in March, a theft that U.S. officials and onchain analysts have linked to North Korean state actors. That single incident accounts for nearly 70% of service‑related losses and marks the largest crypto heist ever recorded, eclipsing 2022's Ronin bridge exploit.

But Chainalysis warns that the more troubling trend may be closer to home. Attacks on individuals now represent roughly 23% of all stolen‑fund activity, a share that has nearly doubled in two years. Criminals are employing increasingly sophisticated social‑engineering schemes, deepfake videos, and one‑click malware to compromise personal wallets, then siphoning funds into holding addresses that currently retain about $8.5 billion in unrecovered crypto.

The physical world has grown more dangerous for crypto holders as well. So‑called "wrench attacks," in which thieves resort to violence or kidnapping to force victims to hand over private keys, are on track to double the previous annual record, according to Chainalysis. Geographically, the United States, Germany, and Russia posted the highest number of victims, while Eastern Europe and parts of the Middle East logged the fastest growth in wallet thefts.

2025 YTD crypto theft by region. Image: Chainalysis

Thieves are also paying steep premiums to launder their take. Chainalysis calculates that hackers this year have spent, on average, 14.5 times the typical on‑chain transaction fee to move funds quickly through mixers, privacy chains, and cross‑chain bridges — up from 2.6 times in 2021 — in an urgency to outrun blockchain‑tracking tools.

Chainalysis calls 2025 a critical inflection point for blockchain security and crypto crime. Block-by-block transparency enables investigators to track stolen funds in real-time, yet the scale and sophistication of attacks are escalating even faster. Whether losses plateau or surpass the $4 billion mark, the firm says, will depend on how quickly exchanges, wallet providers, and everyday users adopt better protective measures, such as multi-factor authentication and improved detection systems, in the months ahead.

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