Macro tailwind crucial for bitcoin during historically soft start to Q3, analysts say

Bitcoin started its softest quarter of the year with no obvious macro upside spark after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone and Israel-Iran tension locked the market in an accumulation range, Bitfinex analysts wrote in their latest market note.

Analysts said spot demand on exchanges and onchain activity have cooled markedly since last month’s war-driven whipsaw. A previous report from Glassnode likened bitcoin's onchain movements to a ghost town. BTC remained hemmed between $100,000 and $110,000, while short-term holders’ average cost at $98,700 caps near-term downside.

Following June’s leverage flush, open interest in bitcoin futures decreased from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, a 7.2% drop that Bitfinex refers to as a “forced de-leveraging” reset. With positions cleaner, the firm expects price deviations above $110,000 or below $100,000 to prove brief as the quarter progresses.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged less than 6.0% gains in the third quarter — its worst showing of any period — and volatility usually contracts, according to CoinGlass data.“For new all-time highs to be reclaimed, a catalyst, either in the form of macro relief, strong ETF flow momentum, or a breakout in global liquidity, will be necessary,” the analysts wrote.

Bitcoin Quarterly returns. Image: CoinGlass

Fed watch

Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at blockchain data firm Nansen, echoed that view. He posited that dovish interest rate policy signals would flip market sentiment to risk-on. “This is, in my opinion, the biggest thing to look out for, which would turn the market sentiment around to be one directional, as opposed to wait and see,” Sondergaard told The Block via email.

The latest Fed dot plot points to just one or two cuts in 2025, and last month’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) revision to 3% keeps policymakers split. Sondergaard said this drop, coupled with Powell’s “wait-and-see” stance, only bolstered uncertainty. “We are still not in a spot where we can comfortably predict a direction for the market and are at the mercy of geopolitical happenings and U.S. market decisions,” he said.

Bitcoin changed hands near $107,500 on Tuesday, with little movement on the day, while ETH hovered at $2,470 as crypto markets remained subdued and traders awaited fresh signals, according to The Block's price pages.

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